On it with Offit

BY BEN OFFIT, CFP®

Interesting Tidbits

“A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past; he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future.”- Sydney Harris

 People touch their faces about 23 times an hour. -Marketwatch, April 4, 2020

“The only thing new in this world is the history you haven’t read yet.” 
- President Harry Truman

A contractor, when done performing a deep-clean of a library in Newmarket, U.K., put the books back on the shelves incorrectly. Library employees returned the following day to discover the shelves were lined with books arranged from largest to smallest — and their alphabetical organizing system upended. -The New York Post, April 25, 2020

In March, the savings rate surged to 13.1%, the highest since November of 1981. Last month, Americans held $2.17 trillion in their savings accounts.- CNN, April 30, 2020

In the 30 years until this March, the compounding effects of reinvested dividends would have accounted for almost half of the return on an S&P 500 index fund.- Morning Brew, April 27, 2020

“History repeats itself twice, the first time as tragedy and the second time as farce.”
- Karl Marx

Right now, only 3% of U.S. grocery sales are online, but if people start using the system they have been forced into, that could mean a massive shift in how food gets in refrigerators. The CBRE Group projects online grocery sales will need a further 75 million to 100 million square feet of industrial freezer and refrigerator warehousing space over the next five years.- Supply Chain Dive, June 6, 2019

Between 1987 and 1994, the U.S. Postal Service purchased 141,000 boxy Grumman mail trucks with an intended lifespan of 24 years- today the average age is 28 costing the USPS about $2 billion annually to maintain them. - Vox, April 22, 2020

“When written in Chinese, the word ‘crises’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity.” - John F. Kennedy

United Airlines and Delta have approached their credit-card partners about selling airline miles ahead of schedule to raise cash. United gets between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion each year for its miles from Chase, while Delta sold $4 billion in miles to American Express last year.- The Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2020

“The gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage; neither our wisdom nor our learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.” - Robert Kennedy

JASON PARFITT, CPA
JOINS OFFIT ADVISORS

Update on the Student Loan Market
by Jamie Calligahan, Student Loan Specialist

It’s fair to say that with an estimated 1.2 trillion in outstanding debt, student loans are the largest crisis the U.S. economy is facing. 

At one point, it was easy to say, “don’t borrow more than you need.” The fact is, with rising tuition costs and degree inflation, most Americans need all of it.  If you can find a silver lining, student loans can be the most flexible in terms of repayment.  In order to determine which is the right option for you, it’s important to factor this into your overall financial goals and portfolio.  

If your goal is to rid yourself of this debt as soon as possible, now is the perfect time to aggressively pay them down.  As part of the CARES Act, all federal student loan payments and interest were automatically suspended through Sept. 30, 2020. This means that you are not required to make payments however it may be wise to do so anyway.  Currently, you could make payments that would go 100% towards your principle and chip away at the balance without counterproductive interest working against you.  

You may be a borrower relying on PSLF.  While this program has had its hurdles and negative media, it is alive and well and as long as you are informed, it is a very good option for some.  Also, as part of the CARES Act, April-Sept 2020, will be credited towards PSLF eligibility, even when you are not making payments.  That’s 6 months of the 120-month requirement earned while saving your six months’ worth of payments.  If you are someone pursuing PSLF and have not had a professional evaluate your loans, it’s advisable you do so sooner than later so you are not added to the overwhelming percentage of borrowers being denied.

With the 2020 elections quickly approaching, you can be assured student loans will be one of the hottest topics.  Whether you’re a proponent of forgiving all student debt, providing some relief, or are concerned with how those proposals will affect the economy, without a doubt it is a bipartisan issue and politicians know they need a plan to secure votes.  Because of this, many borrowers have mixed feelings about refinancing now and taking advantage of lower interest rates or holding out to see what policies may be passed. The answer is not the same for everyone.  

Whether you currently have student loan debt yourself or are facing the inevitable of accruing the debt soon for yourself or your child, you need to consider this as an investment like you would your home or retirement.  It’s important to have a strategy.  Connect with us and be sure that you know the most suitable strategy for you.

Market Update

Equity Markets

The volatility spike we experienced in March was unprecedented. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX or Fear Index, hit a record high during March surpassing any other point in its history dating back to January 1990. Only three times in the over 7,600 trading days since its inception has this index closed above 80, including March 16, 2020 when it closed at 82.69 – a record high close.

These are indeed uncertain times, but we also believed that this current period was not the scariest time in the last 30 years as this reading seemed to indicate. Although too early to claim victory, equity markets calmed down dramatically in April and the VIX Index fell by about 60% to end the month around 34. This is still a high level for the VIX Index. The long-term average for the VIX Index is 19.3 and historically, it trades between 10-30 about 91% of the time and between 30-40 only about 5.5% of the time. We believe we will remain in a period of elevated capital market volatility for the foreseeable future.

Though it is far from certain, we believe the worst of the virus and stock market news is behind us and that we are on a gradual road to recovery. Extremes had been reached on the pessimistic side when looking at market indicators like the VIX Index, trading sentiment and put/call ratios. Again, we noted in last month’s Benchmark Review that we tend to see these types of extreme pessimistic readings when the market is at or near a bottom. We believe conditions are improving, but we are not so naïve to think that things will get back to normal overnight. We think volatility will stay elevated and that we have a choppy road ahead as the reopening of the economy gradually begins.

We had anticipated a more volatile ride moving into 2020 due in part to valuations getting stretched after the year-end run in 2019, optimism reaching extreme levels (which can be a bearish indicator of complacency in the market), and normal election year volatility that markets historically experience in the first half of a presidential election year. We had even believed that a 5%-10% correction could materialize in the first part of 2020. After declining nearly 34%, incredibly, year-to-date the S&P 500 is down only -9.29% through April, which is more or less in-line with the type of “normal” market correction we believed was possible. We did not anticipate COVID-19, and the way we arrived at this point is anything but a run-of-the-mill 10% stock market correction, but we are where we are.

With this background, the equity rebound in April was dramatic, but stocks are still down year-to-date. The numbers for April were as follows: The S&P 500 gained 12.82%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average improved by 11.22%, the Russell 3000 advanced 13.24%, the NASDAQ Composite rallied 15.49% and the Russell 2000 Index, a measure of small-cap companies, rebounded by 13.74%. Significant divergences still exist among U.S. equity indices on a year-to-date basis and those declines through April (in the same order) were: -9.29%, -14.07%, -10.42%, -0.63%, and -21.08%, respectively.

The performance of the S&P has been driven by some of the largest companies in this index as the five largest companies have become a bigger overall percentage of this market-cap weighted index. Looking beneath those largest-cap companies reveals broader year-to-date weakness in stocks. One way to analyze this factor is to look at the equal-weighted returns of the S&P 500 compared to the market-cap weighted results (the way this index is normally presented).

The equal-weighted returns for the S&P 500 showed a gain in April of 14.44%, but a year-to-date decline of -16.11%. This is compared to the market-cap weighted numbers of 12.82% and -9.29%, respectively. This reveals that although there was some modest broadening in returns for the month, the largest companies in this index are still driving year-to-date results. This is an important point when analyzing active portfolio managers because they typically build their portfolio on an equal-weighted versus market-cap weighted basis. For example, a portfolio manager might buy a 2% position in 50 stocks to build an equity portfolio and would not typically skew that allocation larger or smaller based on the market cap size of a particular company.

Growth stocks continued to outpace value stocks on a relative basis rather dramatically for the month and year-to-date. The large-cap and value focused Russell 1000 Value Index advanced 11.24% compared to the Russell 1000 Growth Index, which gained 14.80% in April. Year-to-date results are even more telling with the former index down -18.49% through the first four months of the year and the latter index down a much more modest -1.39%. The theme of large-cap growth companies dominating small and mid-cap companies and the value style has continued into 2020.

International equities gained in April as well, but their results lagged U.S. stocks. Emerging market equities, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, gained 9.16% in April, but were still down -16.60% year-to-date. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index, a broad measure of international equities, advanced 7.58% for the month, but was off -17.55% year-to-date.

Fixed Income Markets

At various points in March, liquidity dried up in the bond market. Credit spreads widened dramatically during this period and most pockets of fixed income came under pressure outside of U.S. Treasuries as a flight to quality ensued. With monetary operations and massive support from the Federal Reserve in later March and April, liquidity improved, and bond market functioning began to improve.

The flight-to-quality trade was the clear winner in March as U.S. Treasury yields hit historic lows and Treasury prices rallied. Although U.S. Treasury yields remained near their lows in April, credit spreads narrowed, and most pockets of fixed income enjoyed gains during the month. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury closed March 9th at 0.54%, an all-time low. The yield closed out March at 0.70% and it ended April at 0.64%.

With this backdrop of narrowing spreads and declining interest rates, fixed income returns were as follows for April: the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 1.78%, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index advanced 4.58%, and the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index rose 4.51%. Year-to-date, those index results were as follows: a gain of 4.98%, 1.29% and a decline of -8.75%, respectively. Municipal bonds slipped again in April and were also down year-to-date. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 30 Year Treasury index added to its already strong year-to-date gains as it advanced 1.97% in April, putting the gain at 28.29% through the first four months of 2020. The general Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury index gained a more modest 0.64% for the month, but still rose an impressive 8.89% year-to-date.

S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS.  Offit Advisors. is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS.