|
The Future of Social Security; Ben Debunks Common Misconceptions and Takes a Look at What's Ahead
|
|
|
|
Click above to watch this video. Ben takes a look at this critical pillar of America's social safety net, and sets the record straight on the state of Social Security.
|
|
|
Offit Advisors Partners with Miracle Mile Advisors
|
|
|
|
Offit Advisors Founder & CEO Ben Offit Discusses a new partnership between OA and Miracle Mile Advisors.
|
|
We are excited for this partnership and our expanded capabilities to bring to clients within financial planning, tax, risk management, estate, asset protection, and charitable planning. This will also give us a wider range of investment solutions, technology, and increased back-office support and it will enhance our Fiduciary commitment to all of our clients.
Watch more in this video with Offit Advisors Founder & CEO Ben Offit - https://youtu.be/Qc-ZuQvGueM |
|
|
Black Diamond Live Webinar - Save the Date!
|
|
|
As part of our partnership with Miracle Mile, we are transitioning to using Black Diamond as our investment portal. We will be hosting a live webinar on Thursday, November 21st, at 5 PM to review this together. We will send a link soon.
|
|
|
Attention Business Owners! Important Information About the Corporate Transparency Act
|
|
|
All corporations, limited liability companies and other business entities that were created by a filing with a secretary of state or a similar office to create the entity or, for foreign companies, need to do this to register to do business in the United States. Take action before the year is over by using this link
|
|
|
OA's Sophia Trakhtman Chronicled in Important Article by The Associated
|
|
|
Sophia Trakhtman: Finding Meaning Through Giving Back
Sophia Trakhtman has always known what it means to be Jewish. Born to two immigrants from the Soviet Union, she grew up hearing stories of religious persecution and knowing how fortunate she was to be able to freely express her beliefs in the United States.
But despite her heritage, Sophia didn’t fully connect with Jewish culture and community until high school, when she started growing her circle of Jewish peers and discovered her love for volunteering and community action. Now, she’s a proud member of The Associated’s Young Adult Division Volunteer Committee and looks forward to making positive change in the Baltimore Jewish community...
|
|
|
Amid ongoing competition with the United States, China experienced a major setback earlier this year when its secret nuclear submarine sank immediately after being launched.
Futurism, September 26, 2024
Seniors are frequent victims of financial fraud, and for every one reported case of elder abuse, 24 others go unreported. According to a study cited by the National Center on Elder Abuse, The study pegs the annual losses from elder financial abuse at $28.3 billion.
Barron’s, June 14, 2024
Traffic stops are the most common way Americans encounter police officers, with nearly 50,000 motorists being pulled over every day.
Findings, September 10, 2024
Venezuelan strongman President Nicolás Maduro-keen to distract Venezuelans from his rigging of July elections, ongoing crackdown, and the nation’s economic collapse-decreed that Christmas will start Oct 1 this year “in peace, joy, and security!”
Global News, September 4, 2024
Due to their perceived return on investment, 35% of the more than 11,000 college graduates surveyed by the Federal Reserve in 2023 said they wished they had chosen a different area of study.
Morning Brew, September 15, 2024
A stunning 33% of voters believe we’re in a recession.
Axios, September 19, 2024
“There’s an old saying in Arkansas that you don’t learn nothing the second time you get kicked in the head by a mule.”
Rep. Steve Womack
|
|
|
Stocks Rebound from Weak September Start to End Month and Quarter Higher
|
|
|
Highlights
- The three major U.S. stock indices put in new all-time highs during the third quarter with September culminating in broad equity gains. Large-cap growth companies, as measured by the NASDAQ Composite, peaked in July but enjoyed some momentum to close out the quarter.
- Bonds had gains for the fifth month in a row as rates continued to move lower during the month and hit the lowest level of 2024. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended August at 3.91% and closed September at 3.81%.
- The U.S. economy continued to grow but showed some evidence of slowing economic activity. The ISM manufacturing index remained below 50 in August, but the non-manufacturing index ticked modestly higher to 51.5. Job market activity has slowed, but housing had a bit of a bump higher with the recent decline in rates.
- Fed Chairman Powell kicked off the rate-cutting cycle in September with a 50 basis point cut – the first rate cut since 2020. According to the CME FedWatch tool, odds favor 3 more cuts in 2024 with 2 FOMC meetings remaining.
Equity Markets
The month started off volatile for stocks, but not to the same degree as August. However, as the month progressed, stocks rebounded and turned in solid monthly gains. September closed out a strong quarter and first 9 months of 2024 for stocks. See Table 1 for equity results for September 2024, Q3 2024, year to date (YTD) and calendar year 2023.
Table 1
| Index |
Sept 2024 |
Q3 2024 |
YTD |
2023 |
| S&P 500 |
2.14% |
5.89% |
22.08% |
26.29% |
| S&P 500 Equal Weight |
2.34% |
9.60% |
15.16% |
13.87% |
| DJIA |
1.96% |
8.72% |
13.93% |
16.18% |
| Russell 3000 |
2.07% |
6.23% |
20.63% |
25.96% |
| NASDAQ Comp. |
2.76% |
2.76% |
21.84% |
44.64% |
| Russell 2000 |
0.70% |
9.27% |
11.17% |
16.93% |
| MSCI ACWI ex U.S. |
2.69% |
8.06% |
14.21% |
15.62% |
| MSCI Emerging Mkts Net |
6.68% |
8.72% |
16.86% |
9.83% |
Source: Bloomberg For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The recent broadening of the market shows up clearly in the quarterly numbers. September had more of the large-cap leadership we have seen so often, but the quarter saw a broadening into small and mid-caps, as well as value and international companies relative to large-cap growth. We have often discussed the difference between the returns of the headline, market-cap-weighted S&P 500 Index compared to the equal-weighted version of the same stocks, which is more reflective of what the “average” stock is doing. The returns of these two measures were relatively in-line with each other in September, but the quarter shows a clear shift to the equal weighted index while YTD performance still shows the market-cap weighted index in the lead. The “average” stock had a better run in Q3, but large-caps still lead year to date.
The NASDAQ stands out with one of the the best domestic index returns in September, but that accounted for all its returns for the quarter. It still shows impressive results YTD, but the gap narrowed considerably with its relative underperformance in Q3. Large-cap value lagged in September compared to growth, with one example being the Russell 1000 Value Index up 1.39% for the month, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index gained 2.83%. For the quarter, however, those returns were 9.43% and 3.19%, respectively, as value outperformed. Year to date, the index returns flipped again with the value version up 16.68% and the growth index gaining 24.55%. So, the market has seen a broadening of late, but large-cap growth still leads so far this year.
Emerging markets had some of the strongest monthly results, advancing over 6.6%. International stocks in general have also enjoyed the recent broadening in the market with solid quarterly and YTD results that rival some of the U.S. equity indices. The first 9 months of 2024 have been very strong for equity markets following a strong year of returns in 2023.
Fixed Income
After hitting the highest level of the year in April, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has declined for the last five months. In September, the 10-year yield hit a new low for 2024. This move lower in rates has helped set up generally positive returns for bonds during the period. Most bond sectors were able to push into positive territory after gains in July and additional gains have been added over the last two months. The 10-year U.S Treasury yield ended July at 4.09%. On August 1, the yield closed below 4% for the first time since February and it ended September at 3.81%. See Table 2 for fixed income index returns for September 2024, Q3 2024, YTD, and calendar year 2023.
Table 2
| Index |
Sept 2024 |
Q3 2024 |
YTD |
2023 |
| Bloomberg U.S. Agg |
1.34% |
5.20% |
4.45% |
5.53% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Credit |
1.71% |
5.71% |
5.23% |
8.18% |
| Bloomberg U.S. High Yld |
1.62% |
5.28% |
8.00% |
13.44% |
| Bloomberg Muni |
0.99% |
2.71% |
2.30% |
6.40% |
| Bloomberg 30-year U.S. TSY |
1.93% |
8.12% |
1.42% |
1.93% |
| Bloomberg U.S. TSY |
1.20% |
4.74% |
3.84% |
4.05% |
Source: Bloomberg For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.
It is apparent that, outside of high yield, all of the YTD returns for these major bond indices have occurred in the last three months. This has coincided with the drop in interest rates and those more rate sensitive sectors (like 30-year U.S. Treasuries) have had the strongest recent results. However, they also struggled more at the beginning of the year. High yield bonds have had a steadier run this year as they often follow the stock market, so they have enjoyed gains throughout 2024.
At the start of the year, we said we believed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would be in a range between 3.25% and 4.5% in 2024 (acknowledging that we got above that level in April). The trend in rates has been lower since those April highs, and we believe rates will continue to decline as the Fed begins a rate cutting cycle. We also believe Fed action will impact the front end of the yield curve more dramatically, but that the general trend will be for rates to move lower.
We maintain our long-standing position favoring credit versus pure rate exposure in this interest rate environment and that has served us well so far in 2024. We also believe the role bonds play in a portfolio, to provide stable cash flow and to help offset the volatility of stocks in the long run, has not changed. Furthermore, we believe that bond yields remain attractive, and we are seeing some of the best bond yields in years. In our opinion, having an active bond management approach makes sense in these volatile times.
|
|
S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.
Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy.
NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.
Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million.
Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
|
|
|
|
Miracle Mile Advisors LLC (“MMA”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where MMA and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information is illustrative, and is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. All investments include a risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. The principal risks of MMA's strategies are disclosed in the publicly available Form ADV Part 2A. Past performance shown is not indicative of future results, which could differ substantially. This message is confidential and subject to terms at: https://miraclemileadvisors.com/disclosures/ including on awards/rankings, confidentiality, legal privilege, viruses and monitoring of electronic messages. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this message and notify the sender immediately. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.
|
|
|
|
|
|
