On It with Offit - April 2024

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APR | 2024

Welcoming Director of Investment Operations Jennifer Browning to Offit Advisors

Offit Advisors is excited to welcome Jennifer Browning to our firm! Jennifer’s role at OA includes overseeing account management and serving clients with their investments, while articulating and leading an operations strategy that best supports the firm’s investment platform.
 
Jennifer began her journey in the financial industry in 2008. She started in the banking industry, assisting clients with small business loans and home mortgages. She transitioned to investments in 2017 where she assisted clients with individual and small business investments at T Rowe Price. She has certification in sales, communication, marketing as well as geriatric nursing, OBGYN, CPR and defibrillator and has a passion for volunteering and giving back.
 
She enjoys building rapport and establishing strong relationships with the firm’s clients. Her vision is to become a trusted colleague who inspires others as she conducts herself with honesty and integrity. She is committed to being a dedicated team player while demonstrating strong leadership and communication skills. 
 
In her free time, she enjoys spending time with her husband, Jered, and their sons, Andrew and Connor. She enjoys going to the beach, reading, cooking, and exercising. Volunteering for any cause is a passion for her. She is a former chairperson for the American Heart Association and Special Olympics.

Welcome to OA Jennifer; We're thrilled to have you on our team!

The Offit Family's Spring Holiday Celebrations 

Holidays represent an important opportunity for family and friends to gather and focus on what's really important. Ben, Amanda, and the boys spent some quality family time together during this years Easter and Passover holidays. We hope you had a wonderful holiday!

A Busy Month for OA Financial Advisor Sophia Trakhtman

Offit Advisors' Sophia Trakhtman was a participating panelist at a Retirement Planning event hosted by Cornerstone Real Estate Advisors earlier this month. The event was designed to help the viewer better understand and navigate the intricacies of retirement planning, providing important insights on wealth preservation, healthcare costs, and downsizing.
Sophia also spent time in recent weeks volunteering and cleaning up in Baltimore City as part of a community service project through the Associated. She also attended a recent networking event with a law firm at Hayfields Country club, and celebrated a family Bat Mitzvah.

Ben & Laura Team-Up to Lend Financial Planning Insight to the Community

Ben and Laura both demonstrated their Financial Planning leadership by not only serving as Presidents of the Financial Planning Association, but also by participating in the CFP Zone for pro bono financial planning at Poly Western High School in Baltimore City and giving excellent financial planning advice for free to all members of our community!

A recent survey by Tech.com of 1,000 US-based business leaders found that companies with experience using AI were more than twice as likely to be open to a four-day workweek than those who didn’t.

CNBC, April 7, 2024

Americans spent more than $100 billion on lotteries in 45 states and the District of Columbia last year—a haul that, combined, would make U.S. lotteries the country’s ninth-most profitable company.

The Economist, April 2, 2024

In 2021, the top 1% of income earners in America made 26% of the country’s total income and paid 46% of total income taxes.
Charlie Bilello
 

The U.S. residential real estate market is worth a staggering $47.5 trillion.

Business Insider, February 28, 2024
 

Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the U.S. consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 840% after adjusting for inflation.

Charlie Bilello, March 20, 2024
 

Nearly half of Fortune 500 companies, including Apple, Amazon, AT&T, Google, Pfizer, and Capital One, were founded by immigrants or children of immigrants.

Fast Company, July 26, 2018
 

What is the difference between a taxidermist and a tax collector? The taxidermist takes only your skin.

Mark Twain

Stocks Have the Best Q1 Since 2019; Bonds Rise in March, but Close Down for the Quarter

Highlights
  • New all-time highs were achieved for the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average in March. The S&P 500 turned in a double-digit gain for the quarter—its best Q1 since 2019.
  • Bonds made gains for the month after struggling to begin the new year in the face of rising rates. For March, bonds reversed some of the declines from earlier in the year, but Q1 results were largely negative (outside of high yield).
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined in March after rising the first two months of 2024. The yield closed February at 4.25%, and slipped modestly lower to 4.20% by the end of March.
  • The U.S. economy continues to reflect growth. The third reading of Q4 2023 GDP was 3.4%, which surpassed expectations and the prior reading of 3.2%.
  • The FOMC meeting in March largely confirmed earlier ideas laid out by the Fed. Primarily, that there will be rate cuts in 2024, but likely closer to 3 and the market has adjusted for this potential scenario. Chairman Powell acknowledged that the rate hike cycle is likely over and, while not in a hurry, rate cuts will likely be coming in 2024.

Equity Markets

Despite rate cut expectations being reduced by half by the market, stocks continued their rally since the end of 2023. Since the start of the year, each month has seen gains for the major market indices, and March was no different. The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all recorded new all-time highs. Furthermore, the market rally broadened in March with value stocks outpacing growth, and small-caps outgaining their large-cap counterparts.

The better results of the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index compared to the main S&P 500 Index for March reflected this broadening of the rally, but also signaled the strength of large-cap growth so far this year. Large-cap growth outperformed for the quarter, but value and small-caps closed that gap in March. Small-caps showed some strength in February after posting negative results in January and that momentum continued in March.

See Table 1 for equity results for March 2024, Q1 20204, and calendar year 2023.


Table 1
 

Index    March 2024    Q1 2024    2023
S&P 500    3.22%    10.56%    26.29%
S&P 500 Equal Weight    4.46%    7.91%    13.87%
DJIA    2.21%    6.14%    16.18%
Russell 3000    3.23%   10.02%    25.96%
NASDAQ Comp.    1.85%    9.31%    44.64%
Russell 2000    3.58%    5.18%    16.93%
MSCI ACWI ex U.S.    3.13%    4.69%    15.62%
MSCI Emerging Mkts Net    2.48%    2.37%    9.83%


Source: Bloomberg For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.
 

2023 will be remembered for the dominance of large-cap growth and 2024 has started in a similar fashion. However, the market broadened once again in March as it had in late 2023. We believe the market could continue to broaden in 2024 with valuations more compelling in value, small, mid-cap, and international stocks.

International stocks continued to underperform U.S. equities with emerging markets among the weakest equity areas to begin 2024. Gains in March accounted for the year-to-date advance for emerging market stocks. We still see opportunities in international markets with valuations that are lower than the U.S. We also believe that the U.S. dollar will likely weaken over the short to intermediate-term as the Fed begins cutting rates in 2024.


Fixed Income

The rally in bonds to close out 2023 sent the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield sharply lower, closing last year at 3.88%. Most of 2024 has seen the yield move higher after such a sharp drop in a short time frame late last year. However, March saw yields drift lower, and this set up a better backdrop from fixed income returns for March. However, gains for the month were not enough to overcome declines from January and February and the quarter ended with most bond sectors down, with the exception being high yield bonds. After closing February at 4.25%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended March at 4.20%.

See Table 2 for fixed income index returns for March 2024, Q1 2024, and calendar year 2023.

Table 2
 

Index    March 2024    Q1 2024    2023
Bloomberg U.S. Agg    0.92%    -0.78%    5.53%
Bloomberg U.S. Credit    1.23%    -0.41%    8.18%
Bloomberg U.S. High Yld    1.18%    1.47%    13.44%
Bloomberg Muni    0.00%    -0.39%    6.40%
Bloomberg 30-year U.S. TSY    0.77%    -4.06%    1.93%
Bloomberg U.S. TSY    0.64%    -0.96%    4.05%
 
Source: Bloomberg. For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.


High yield bonds and credit posted solid returns for the month, but only high yield enjoyed gains for the first quarter when looking at these broad bond indices. High yield bonds often follow what is happening with stocks, so during a month and quarter where stocks performed well, it is not a surprise to see high yield bonds advance.

The other areas of the bond market have been more impacted by the general move higher in rates, except for the modest reprieve in March. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to drift lower as we move through 2024 and believe it will be in a range between 3.25% and 4.5% during the year. We believe rates at the front end of the yield curve will decline as the Fed begins to cut rates in 2024.

We maintain our long-standing position favoring credit versus pure rate exposure in this interest rate environment and that has served us well so far in 2024. We also believe the role bonds play in a portfolio, to provide stable cash flow and to help offset the volatility of stocks in the long run, has not changed. Furthermore, we believe that bond yields remain attractive even though rates have dropped from their October 2023 highs. In our opinion, having an active bond management approach makes sense in these volatile times.

S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Offit Advisors is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Offit Advisory Services, LLC is a tax firm but neither Kestra IS nor Kestra AS provide legal or tax advice and are not Certified Public Accounting firms.For more information on the Five Star Wealth Manager and the research/selection methodology go to: www.fivestarprofessional.com. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures
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Columbia, MD 21046, US

Phone + Fax:  410 600 PLAN (7526)
E – Office@OffitAdvisors.com
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To schedule an appointment with us, click here!

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


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