On It with Offit - July 2023

*|MC:SUBJECT|*
JULY | 2023

proACTION℠ Planning Series

Bonus Episode | What Motivates Ben
Join Ben Offit, CFP®, for a bonus episode of our proACTION℠ Planning Series, where he talks about his background, and his drive to help others achieve a higher quality of life thorugh Financial Planning.

Ben Recognized by Baltimore Magazine as a 2023 Five Star Wealth Manager for 6th Consecutive Year

To receive the 2023 Five Star Wealth Manager award, researched and managed by Five Star Professional, a wealth manager must meet 10 objective eligibility and evaluation criteria associated with wealth managers who provide quality services to their clients. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2023 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Note: The Five Star award is not indicative of the wealth manager's future performance.

“Really, Really appreciate your thoughtful, individualized approach” – Clara, Physician

The S&P 500 finally exited out of the longest bear market since 1948. It took 248 days for the market to close up more than 20% from its most recent low.

MarketWatch, June 11, 2023
 

U.S. wages outpaced inflation on a year-over-year basis in May by 0.2%, ending the ignominious streak of 25 consecutive months of negative real-way growth.

CNBC, June 22, 2023


A Ukrainian hotline for Russians who want to surrender has received more than 17,000 inquiries since September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2023


The New York Yankees’ Domingo Germán pitched the 24th perfect game in Major League Baseball history retiring all 27 Oakland Athletics batters he faced over nine dominant innings. Historically, the DOW has had very strong returns following perfect games: The index has been higher 81% of the time a year later, with an average return of nearly 13%.

Barron’s, June 29, 2023

“Justice will not be served until those who are unaffected are as outraged as those who are.”
Benjamin Franklin

“History is one long processional of crazy ideas.”
Phil Knight

The Haystack Approach to Investing in the Future

Greetings, loyal readership!
 
It's my pleasure to keep you informed about the evolving world of finance and investing. Today, let's discuss how major breakthroughs have shaped our world and how we can embrace the future with sound investment strategy.
 
Over the years, we've witnessed incredible technological advancements that have revolutionized the way we live and work. From the days of dial-up internet to the rise of electric cars, to the advent of artificial intelligence, each era has brought its own set unexpected winners.
 
Remember the early 2000s when the internet was booming? Back then, it seemed like every .com website had the potential to conquer the world. We had search engines like Lykos, AskJeeves, and Yahoo as the frontrunners, but then, out of nowhere, a funny named company called Google swooped in and became the grand winner.
 
Similarly, with cryptocurrency, while it's tempting to invest in this landmark technology, just as in the .com era, where countless companies fizzled out, the vast majority of cryptocurrencies will eventually go to $0. It's like betting on which flavor of ice cream will be the ultimate hit while ignoring the fact that most of them will melt away. However, a few may emerge as major winners, much like the rocky road or the chocolate mint that stand the test of time.
 
With electric cars, we can envision an electrifying future, but we can't predict which specific company will emerge as the long-term winner. Will it be Tesla? Maybe. Maybe not. The point is, don't put all your volts in one battery. Diversify your investment approach to ensure that you're not left stranded on the side of the road when it comes to the electrifying evolution of transportation.
 
Now, let's talk about the tried and true concept of diversification. Picture yourself strolling through a vibrant market, surrounded by an assortment of tantalizing fruits. You have the choice to either search for that one elusive needle in the haystack, the perfect fruit, or simply enjoy the rich variety the market offers. Well, my dear neighbors, the same principle applies to investing.
 
Rather than trying to pinpoint the exact companies that will dominate the future, consider owning the haystack itself. This is what you do by owning an entire index – you become the owner of the entire market, including those needles in the haystack!  For example, if you invest in the S&P 500, you're already holding a slice of the biggest tech companies out there, such as Apple, Facebook, and Tesla. These companies naturally find their way into the index as the economy evolves. By embracing diversification, you decrease the risk of failure and increase the probability of reward. After all, who wouldn't want a taste of that sweet pie chart with a side of stability?
 
Now, some folks might argue that concentrated positions lead to higher risk and higher rewards. While that may be true in some scenarios, when it comes to investing in individual stocks, it's like playing a high-stakes game of roulette. Sure, you might hit the jackpot and stumble upon the next Apple or Google, but let's face it, most individual stocks won't bring such fortunes. Investing in an index, on the other hand, offers you a higher likelihood of owning the top companies in the world at all times, minimizing the risk of a single position failing in your overall portfolio.
 
So, trying to be a fortune-teller with which companies will be the next big winners, take a step back and simply own the index. It's like having front-row tickets to the grandest show in town. You get to participate in the growth of the best companies now and into the future, all while embracing the beauty of diversification.
 
In the world of investing, the key is to ride the waves of change with a smile on our faces and a diversified portfolio in our hands. Embrace the breakthroughs, chuckle at the unpredictable winners, and savor the fruits of your diversified portfolio.
 
Disclosures: You cannot invest directly in an index
S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Offit Advisors is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Offit Advisory Services, LLC is a tax firm but neither Kestra IS nor Kestra AS provide legal or tax advice and are not Certified Public Accounting firms.For more information on the Five Star Wealth Manager and the research/selection methodology go to: www.fivestarprofessional.com. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures
Facebook
Twitter
Website
LinkedIn
Instagram
6990 Columbia Gateway Drive
Suite 150
Columbia, MD 21046, US

Phone + Fax:  410 600 PLAN (7526)
E – Office@OffitAdvisors.com
W- www.OffitAdvisors.com
 
To schedule an appointment with us, click here!

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

 

On It with Offit - May 2023

*|MC:SUBJECT|*
MAY | 2023

Offit Advisors On The Road

 In April, Principal, Ben Offit visited various clients in the Southeast along with Ann Hoover joining via Zoom.  During the trip, Ben got to stay with long time teammate Barbara Owens at her home in North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  During the trip they both got to exercise on the beautiful beaches at 7 AM in the morning.  See picture above.

proACTION℠ Planning Series

Episode 6 | Sorting Through Your "Junk Box" 
Simplifying your Financial Life
Join Ben Offit, CFP®, for Episode 6 of the proACTION℠ Planning Series, where he discusses how Offit Advisors can help you organize your financial life.
“Can't put into words how much
we appreciate you both!!!”


– Susan

Leona Helmsley, widely dubbed the "Queen of Mean,” said, "We don't pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes."  And in a fitting bit of chronology, the judge ordered her prison sentence to start on April 15.

Time & The History Channel


In 2021, India exported more in software ($133 billion) than Saudi Arabia did in oil ($113 billion).
Level Up, February 6, 2022

“I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself.”
Ronald Reagan


Gwyneth Paltrow not only won the $1 she requested in her countersuit against Terry Sanderson, but she also won the internet. Why was the trial so viral? Mainly because it produced so many soundbites that seemed like they were lifted from a White Lotus episode skewering the wealthy and aloof. After being asked how the crash inconvenienced her, Paltrow told the courtroom, “Well, I lost half a day of skiing.” Sanderson’s witnesses said that following the crash, he was unable to enjoy wine tastings.

Morning Brew, March 31, 2023


Lincoln died. The Titanic sank, Ray Crock started McDonald's, and Babe Ruth hit his first home run, all on April 15th.
Brainy History


A blended study of 105,000 headlines and 370 million impressions concluded that “each additional negative word” in a news headline increased the click-through rate by 2.3%.
Nature Human Behavior, March 16, 2023


“When you understand every opinion is a vision loaded with personal history, you will start to understand that all judgment is a confession.”
Nikola Tesla

Mixed Markets See Large-Caps and Bonds Advance; SMID Declined

Highlights

  • Concerns around regional banks caused stocks to slump and volatility to rise in the middle of March, but from that point on, equities have advanced, and volatility has declined through April.
 
  • The VIX Index, a measure of stock market volatility, rose to just below 30 on an intraday basis in mid-March, but it moved steadily lower from that point. It closed April at 15.78 – a 52-week low.
 
  • Large-cap stocks made gains in April, while small and mid-cap companies declined. International stocks were mixed as well with developed markets posting gains, but emerging markets sliding lower.
 
  • The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury closed April at 3.44% compared to March’s close at 3.48%. With the exception of municipal bonds, fixed income markets advanced in April.
 
  • Outside of the job market, economic data continued to show slowing activity. However, inflation readings also continued to improve in April, which could move the Fed toward the end of this rate hike cycle soon.

Equity Markets

In a modest change to the recent trend, large-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap growth companies in April, but the trend of large-caps outperforming small and mid-caps persisted during the month. Developed international stocks gained, but emerging market equities fell in what was a disperse return environment in April. See Table 1 for equity results for April and year to date.
 
Table 1

 
Index     April 2023     YTD 2023

S&P 500
   
    1.56%
   
    9.17%
S&P 500 Equal Weight     0.34%     3.28%
DJIA     2.57%     3.53%
Russell 3000     1.07%     8.32%
NASDAQ Comp.     0.07%     17.12%
Russell 2000     -1.80%     0.89%
MSCI ACWI ex U.S.     1.74%     8.72%
MSCI Emerging Mkts Net     -1.13%     2.78%
.  

Source: Bloomberg For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.

The S&P 500 Index posted a solid gain of 1.56% in April but looking at the S&P 500 on an equal-weighted basis showed the average stock only gained 0.34%. Recall the S&P 500 Index is a market-cap weighted index and is becoming more and more dominated by mega-cap Technology companies. Those mega-cap Technology companies have done better than the average stock and by quite a significant margin when looking at year-to-date results.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite was only modestly higher in April but still has the strongest results so far this year. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index, a measure of small-cap companies, continued to struggle in April and the strong gains at the start of the year have been largely wiped out with recent weakness in this space.

On a year-to-date basis, significant divergences existed in the stock market. Large-cap growth stocks have been the clear winner so far in 2023. Despite gaining only 0.99% for the month, the Russell 1000 Growth Index was up 15.49% for the year to date. By contrast, the Russell 1000 Value Index gained a modestly better 1.51% in April, but it stands with a year-to-date gain of only 2.53%. Growth performed modestly better than value on a relative basis in small and mid-caps in April. However, small and mid-caps were both down during the month regardless of style as large-cap performance dominated the month and year to date.


Fixed Income


Yields have been on a roller coaster ride so far in 2023. In January, yields dropped rather sharply, but February saw yields rise dramatically as some inflation readings were “hot” and concerns grew that the Fed might need to raise rates even higher than previously expected. Equally as dramatic was the drop again in yields in March as there was a flight to quality with concerns about some regional banks. In contrast, April was somewhat calm as yields finished April only modestly lower compared to March. (Not to say there was not some volatility during the month itself.) The 10-year U.S. Treasury closed March at 3.48% and April at 3.44%. Interestingly, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield closed March and April at an identical 3.67%. Outside of the 1-month T-Bill, shorter-term rates (1-year and under) generally rose in April, but longer-dated bond yields generally declined. The inversion of the yield curve continues. Please see Table 2 for fixed income returns for April and YTD.

Table 2

Index     April 2023     YTD 2023

Bloomberg U.S. Agg

    0.61%

    3.59%
Bloomberg U.S. Credit     0.79%     4.26%
Bloomberg U.S. High Yield     1.00%     4.60%
Bloomberg Muni     -0.23%     2.54%
Bloomberg 30-year U.S. TSY     0.16%     6.16%
Bloomberg U.S. TSY     0.54%     3.56%

Source: Bloomberg. For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.


We believe the move higher in rates in 2022 has largely run its course at the longer end of the yield curve and we expect the 10-year yield to move lower as we go through 2023. While volatile, that has occurred so far in 2023 with longer-dated yields declining, which has set up a better return environment for bonds. In previous Fed rate hike cycles, longer rates have started to come down before the Fed has stopped raising the Federal Funds rate and that pattern has played out this year as well.

We maintain our opinion that we are in the late innings of this rate hike cycle. We also maintain our long-standing position favoring credit versus pure rate exposure in this interest rate environment. Municipal bonds have been somewhat expensive on a relative basis, so weakness in this part of the market was not unexpected in April. Finally, we believe the role bonds play in a portfolio, to provide stable cash flows and to help offset the volatility of stocks in the long run, has not changed.


Source: Clark Capital Benchmark Review, April 2023

S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Offit Advisors is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Offit Advisory Services, LLC is a tax firm but neither Kestra IS nor Kestra AS provide legal or tax advice and are not Certified Public Accounting firms.For more information on the Five Star Wealth Manager and the research/selection methodology go to: www.fivestarprofessional.com. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures
Facebook
Twitter
Website
LinkedIn
Instagram
6990 Columbia Gateway Drive
Suite 150
Columbia, MD 21046, US

Phone + Fax:  410 600 PLAN (7526)
E – Office@OffitAdvisors.com
W- www.OffitAdvisors.com
 
To schedule an appointment with us, click here!

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

 

On It with Offit - March 2023

*|MC:SUBJECT|*
MAR | 2023

Offit Advisors & The Greene Turtle Host March Madness Happy Hour

We were thrilled to host a happy hour for tenants in our Columbia office building earlier this month to get to know our neighbors, enjoy some great food and drinks, and share a little bit of Financial Planning knowledge along the way. Special thanks to our co-host The Greene Turtle for helping to make this event possible.

OA attends Kestra Ascend Conference in Austin

The Offit Advisors team went to Austin, Texas in February for the Kestra Ascend Conference.  It was a great experience to go to our home office, interact with other advisors from around the country, and learn about the markets, economy, practice management, and have a great time together!

The "Wealth Killers"

Are you being impacted by credit card debt, student loans, or another "wealth killer?" Ben checks in to discuss.

 50 Tips to Help You Retire by Age 50

Check out this article from GOBankingRates.com featuring Offit Advisors' Financial Advisor & Financial Planning Specialist Rachel Burk, who offers some tips on how to retire by the time you turn 50.
Read More

proACTIONPlanning Series

Episode 5 | Emergency Funds; How to Use & Structure Them
Join Ben Offit, CFP® and Laura Sendldorfer, CIC to better understand how you can use and structure an emergency fund to protect you and your family when the unexpected happens.

Apartment rents fell in every single major metropolitan area in the U.S. over the past six months through January. This is the first time in five years that rents fell every month over a six-month period.

The Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2023
 

Since 2007, the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Ethics, which investigates allegations of misconduct by Senators and staff, has received 1,523 complaints that alleged rule violations. Over the course of the past 16 years, the committee has voted to issue disciplinary sanctions in zero cases.

Raw Story, February 22, 2023
 

Spain's government has been shamed after spending millions on trains because they don’t fit through its tunnels. In June 2020, Spanish railway giant Renfe commissioned the manufacturing of 31 trains with dimensions that have now been discovered not to conform to the railway network on which they were going to travel.

Express, February 13, 2023

 

U.S. healthcare spending grew 2.7% in 2021, reaching $4.3 trillion or $12,914 per person. As a share of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, healthcare spending accounted for 18.3 percent.

CMS.gov, December 15, 2022
 

“Winter is not a season, it’s an occupation.”

Sinclair Lewis
 

“Bad times traditionally produce good books”

Salmon Rushdie

Inflation Fears Rattle Market as Stocks and Bonds Decline in February

Highlights

  • February saw stocks and bonds give back some of the strong gains from January after some economic data showed a rather “hot” economy.
  • After hitting a 52-week low at the very beginning of February at just over 17 on an intraday basis, the VIX Index closed February at 20.70 as volatility rose.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed January at 3.52%, but as fear grew that the Fed might stay more aggressive, it spiked to just below 4% during the month. It closed February at 3.92% and bonds struggled as rates rose.
  • The FOMC raised rates at its first meeting of the year on February 1 by 0.25% as expected. The “step down” in rate hikes continues and we believe we are in the late innings of this rate hike cycle.
  • Economic data continued to be mixed but a strong payroll number and higher than expected inflation readings fueled concerns that the Fed will likely need to raise rates higher and keep them there for longer than previously expected. We seem to be in a “good news is bad news” cycle as it relates to the economy and potential monetary policy action.

Equity Markets
 
Index  Feb 2023     YTD
S&P 500    -2.44%     3.69%
DJIA    -3.94%     -1.13%
Russell 3000    -2.34%     4.39%
NASDAQ Comp.    -1.01%     9.61%
Russell 2000    -1.69%     7.89%
MSCI ACWI ex U.S.    -3.51%     4.32%
MSCI Emerging Mkts Net    -6.48%     0.90%

For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

The trend from January of outperformance of small-caps and growth stocks continued in February despite declines across the board. However, January gains were enough to keep all the major indices, except for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, in positive territory year to date. As interest rates rose during February, the U.S. dollar strengthened and that created a headwind to international stocks. Emerging markets were particularly hard hit in February and were able to only hold onto modest year-to-date gains. The broader measure of international stocks, the MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index, was also among the hardest hit areas in February, but it continued to hold onto solid gains year to date after a strong start to the year in January.

Growth outperformed value in February continuing the trend from January. For example, the Russell 1000 Growth Index declined -1.19% for the month, while the Russell 1000 Value Index fell -3.53%.

Small-caps fared better than large-caps in February as can be seen in Table 1, but growth also outperformed on a relative basis in the small-cap space. The Russell 2000 Growth Index slipped -1.08%, while its value counterpart fell -2.31%. Please see Table 1 for equity index returns for February and year to date.

The VIX Index hit a 52-week low in early February, just above 17 on an intraday basis (after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points), but that gave way to higher volatility during most of the rest of the month as stocks weakened. The VIX Index closed February at 20.70, higher for the month and just about 1 point lower than where it ended 2022.


Fixed Income
 
Index    Feb 2023    YTD
Bloomberg U.S. Agg    -2.59%    0.41%
Bloomberg U.S. Credit    -3.01%    0.69%
Bloomberg U.S. High Yld    -1.29%    2.47%
Bloomberg Muni    -2.26%    0.55%
Bloomberg 30-year U.S. TSY    -4.45%    1.38%
Bloomberg U.S. TSY    -2.34%    0.11%

For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.

February was a challenging month for bonds as rates rose rather dramatically. The 10-year U.S. Treasury closed January at 3.52% but it rose to 3.92% by the end of February and this backdrop of rising rates took a toll on bond returns. The more interest-rate sensitive parts of the bond market, like U.S. Treasuries, were most impacted by rising rates compared to those pockets of bonds that are somewhat less sensitive, like high yield bonds. However, bonds were weaker across the board in February and those declines took away much of the strong gains from January, but bonds are still positive so far this year. High yield bonds stand out with their strong relative performance in February and overall positive performance year to date. Please see Table 2 for fixed income returns for February and year to date.

As we have previously stated, we believe the move higher in rates in 2022 has largely run its course at the longer end of the yield curve and we expect the 10-year yield to move lower as we go through 2023. Volatility is expected along the way and rates moved up in February, but we think the broader trend will be lower.

As has happened in previous Fed rate hike cycles, longer rates have started to come down before the Fed has stopped raising the Federal Funds rate. The market seems to now be pricing in the idea that the Fed might raise rates higher and keep them at those levels for longer than previously expected.

We maintain our long-standing position favoring credit versus pure rate exposure in this interest rate environment. We also believe that the role bonds play in a portfolio, which is to provide stable cash flows and to help offset the volatility of stocks in the long run, has not changed.


Source: Clark Capital Benchmark Review, February 2022

S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Offit Advisors is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Offit Advisory Services, LLC is a tax firm but neither Kestra IS nor Kestra AS provide legal or tax advice and are not Certified Public Accounting firms.For more information on the Five Star Wealth Manager and the research/selection methodology go to: www.fivestarprofessional.com. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures
Facebook
Twitter
Website
LinkedIn
Instagram
6990 Columbia Gateway Drive
Suite 150
Columbia, MD 21046, US

Phone + Fax:  410 600 PLAN (7526)
E – Office@OffitAdvisors.com
W- www.OffitAdvisors.com
 
To schedule an appointment with us, click here!

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

 

On It with Offit - February 2023

*|MC:SUBJECT|*
FEB | 2023
  • For Current Clients, be sure to watch out from tax notices from Kestra, Fidelity, Assetmark, and various other investment firms.  You will need to include your 1099s and 5498s on your tax filing for 2022!
 
  • If you have a long term care insurance policy, you have some tax deduction opportunities! Learn More
 
  • If you are a business owner with a 401k you have some other tax savings opportunities!  Learn More

Offit Advisors' Financial Advisor Rachel Burk Featured on Nasdaq.com 

Check out this article from Nasdaq.com featuring Offit Advisors' Financial Advisor & Financial Planning Specialist Rachel Burk, who lends some key insight to an article entitled Want a Higher Savings Rate? Ask Your Bank for a Raise.
Read More

Ben Featured on The Financial Advisor's Workshop Podcast with Brian Kasal

Join Ben Offit and Host Brian Kasal on the Financial Advisor's Workshop podcast for Episode #36 | The Real Risk Is Not Being Ready For When The Market Rebounds.
Listen Now

proACTIONPlanning Series

Episode 4 | Mortgage Planning and Refinancing
Join Ben Offit, CFP® for a crash course in mortgage planning, and discover what you should consider before refinancing.

Shell became the latest oil giant to report eye-watering profits last year. It earned nearly $40 billion in 2022, making last year its most profitable in its 115-year history.

Morning Brew, February 3, 2023
 

As of last Monday morning, Jan 16, the Russell 3000 benchmark for the entire U.S. stock market was up about 4.85% over the three-month period since late October 2022. By contrast, the MSCI World ex-U.S. index has surged more than 19%, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 was up more than 12%.

CNBC, January 24, 2023


Several states are raising their minimum wages this year. The tight labor market has forced employees' wages that are much higher than the legal minimum. Average hourly pay for nonsupervisory retail workers rose 4% in December from a year earlier, to $19.93.

The Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2023
 

The San Antonio Zoo is offering a special Valentine’s Day greeting for exes who just won’t bug off. For $10, the zoo will name a cockroach after your not-so-special someone and feed it to an animal. Those not into bugs can choose a rodent for $25 instead. Donors can opt to send their ex-boo a digital Valentine’s Day Card informing them that a cockroach or rodent was named after them and fed to an animal. Last year they received more than 8,000 donations from all 50 states and over 30 different countries.

CNN, January 29, 2023
 

In October of 2022, billionaire Larry Ellison was pulled over for running a stop sign and speeding on the Hawaiian Island of Lanai – which is 98% owned by Ellison.

RepublicWorld, January 13, 2023
 

“A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes."

Mark Twain

S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Offit Advisors is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Offit Advisory Services, LLC is a tax firm but neither Kestra IS nor Kestra AS provide legal or tax advice and are not Certified Public Accounting firms.For more information on the Five Star Wealth Manager and the research/selection methodology go to: www.fivestarprofessional.com. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures
Facebook
Twitter
Website
LinkedIn
Instagram
6990 Columbia Gateway Drive
Suite 150
Columbia, MD 21046, US

Phone + Fax:  410 600 PLAN (7526)
E – Office@OffitAdvisors.com
W- www.OffitAdvisors.com
 
To schedule an appointment with us, click here!

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

 

On It with Offit - January 2023

*|MC:SUBJECT|*
JAN | 2023

Offit Advisors' Laura Sendldorfer, CIC Elected  FPA President-elect

The team at Offit Advisors is thrilled to recognize one of our own.

Congratulations to Offit Advisors' Financial Advisor Laura Sendldorfer, President-elect of the Financial Planning Association of Maryland. This remarkable achievement is a distinction that Laura has earned through her hard work, knowledge, and expertise, and we are excited to see her thrive in this leadership position at the FPA.

proACTIONPlanning Series

Brand New Secure Act 2.0
Join Ben Offit, CFP® and Laura Sendldorfer, CIC® as they discuss the brand new Secure Act 2.0 main changes and some planning thoughts related to them.

Ann and Ben,

Just wanted to drop a follow-up note to personally thank you for your work with and continued support of my mom.

It means a great deal to her and myself to have you overseeing and helping her through some of the planning and investment decisions, both when my dad first passed away and now moving forward in life.   It has become less daunting and intimidating to her and she actually was looking forward to going to the appointment today.  I enjoyed catching up with you both as well!

Your patience, understanding and perspectives are very valuable and the relationship is very much appreciated.

Thanks again.

Ben S

South Koreans consider a person a year old at birth and add a year to their age every New Year’s Day. A child born on New Year’s Eve can be considered to be two years old despite literally being born yesterday.

Independent, April 12, 2019
 

When the S&P declines 20% or more in a calendar year, it’s been up the next year two-thirds of the time. The following 12 months have seen a median gain of 24.3%.

Barron’s, December 23, 2022
 

New York’s waterways are the cleanest they’ve been in over a century, and whales, dolphins, sharks, seals, crabs, seahorses, and oysters are returning in droves.

Future Crunch, December 16, 2022
 

Going back to the early 1970s, Fed hiking cycles lasted an average of 219 days (from the first hike to the first cut); we’re currently just beyond 260.

Liz Ann Sonders, December 9, 2022
 

The invention of the transistor occurred 75 years ago this week and today it is considered the most manufactured item in human history.

Marketplace, December 12, 2022
 

“Middle age is when you’re faced with two temptations, and you choose the one that will get you home at 9:00 o’clock."

Ronald Reagan

Steps to Become a Millionaire - Part II

Hello Loyal Readership,

We got a lot of positive feedback about our Ten Steps to Become a Millionaire, so we thought about a few other items that could be included and created a part two! So you want to be a millionaire? Follow these steps:

1) Own it and do it. Take responsibility for making it happen. Contrary to popular belief, most millionaires are self-made and 79% did not receive any inheritance of family wealth.

2) Start saving and investing towards it TODAY – if you assume a 7% annualized rate of return, you will need to save the following amounts to have $1M by age 65:

     a. Age 25 - $400 per month
     b. Age 30 - $580 per month
     c. Age 40 - $1275 per month
     d. Age 50 - $3200 per month

3) Obtain a Bachelor’s Degree – it’s not fully necessary, but statistics show that education helps. It’s true that some high school and college dropouts make it really big, and kudos to those people! However, this is the exception, not the majority. 88% of millionaires have a college degree (compared to 33% of the general population). Also, 52% have an advanced degree
(compared to 12% of the general population).

4) Pick your career wisely – Certain careers have statistically showing a higher chance of translating into becoming a millionaire – accountants, actuaries, engineers, doctors, lawyers, zoologists, professors, and sales professionals. This is not to say that you cannot become a millionaire outside of these careers, but you may have a higher probability to do so in the above careers.

5) Work, over a long period of time – Yes, the vast majority of millionaires go to an actual job every day for 28 years before they hit the millionaire mark.

6) Save into your 401k – find a job or career that offers the opportunity to save into a 401k with a match, and take advantage of it right away. 80% of millionaires invested in their 401k.

7) Don’t carry credit card debt – if you spend more than you earn, you will end up with credit card debt that will compound against you with high-interest rates and make it nearly impossible to become a millionaire. Spend less than you earn and save more. Most millionaires never carry
credit card debt.

8) Save into tax-deferred vehicles – This gives you a tax benefit that makes it easier to become a millionaire. Use things such as 401ks, IRAs, Roth IRAs, and cash value life insurance.

9) Become friendly with stocks and equities – One needs to earn close to a 7% annualized rate of return over time to become a millionaire. Holding cash earning 0-2% or bonds earning 0-4% will make it much harder to become a millionaire.

10) Be disciplined with investing – Stop messing around with fads (ie. Day trading, meme stocks, crypto, NFTs). These can feel and sound exciting, but these are not too much different than gambling and you are more likely to strike out with $0 than hitting the home run and making millions. Most millionaires invest consistently, with a disciplined and diversified long term
portfolio. This focus on the long term is more boring, but it is what works more often. Embrace the boring!

11) Accept volatility – the stock market is down about 1 in 4 years. Market corrections (a drop of 10% of more) happen every year or so. Bear markets (a drop of 20% of more) happen every 5 years or so. Accept this and look at as an opportunity to buy low and take advantage of the
short term discount!

12) No excuses, do it, now! - You can decide if you want to become a millionaire or not. Take action today. Start saving in an account today, ignore the noise, make it happen.

Sources: Entrepreneur and Business Insider

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
 
S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Offit Advisors is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Offit Advisory Services, LLC is a tax firm but neither Kestra IS nor Kestra AS provide legal or tax advice and are not Certified Public Accounting firms.For more information on the Five Star Wealth Manager and the research/selection methodology go to: www.fivestarprofessional.com. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures
Facebook
Twitter
Website
LinkedIn
Instagram
6990 Columbia Gateway Drive
Suite 150
Columbia, MD 21046, US

Phone + Fax:  410 600 PLAN (7526)
E – Office@OffitAdvisors.com
W- www.OffitAdvisors.com
 
To schedule an appointment with us, click here!

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

 

Steps to Become a Millionaire; Part 2

Hello Loyal Readership,

We got a lot of positive feedback about our Ten Steps to Become a Millionaire, so we thought about a few other items that could be included and created a part two!  So you want to be a millionaire? 

Follow these steps:

  1. Own it and do it.  Take responsibility for making it happen.  Contrary to popular belief, most millionaires are self-made and 79% did not receive any inheritance of family wealth.

  2. Start saving and investing towards it TODAY – if you assume a 7% annualized rate of return, you will need to save the following amounts to have $1M by age 65:

    1. Age 25 - $400 per month

    2. Age 30 - $580 per month

    3. Age 40 - $1275 per month

    4. Age 50 - $3200 per month

  3. Obtain a Bachelor’s Degree – it’s not fully necessary, but statistics show that education helps.  It’s true that some high school and college drop outs make it really big, and kudos to those people!  However, this is the exception, not the majority.  88% of millionaires have a college degree (compared to 33% of the general population).  Also, 52% have an advanced degree (compared to 12% of the general population).

  4. Pick your career wisely – Certain careers have statistically showing a higher chance of translating into becoming a millionaire – accountants, actuaries, engineers, doctors, lawyers, zoologists, professors, and sales professionals.  This is not to say that you cannot become a millionaire outside of these careers, but you may have a higher probability to do so in the above careers.

  5. Work, over a long period of time – Yes, the vast majority of millionaires go to an actual job every day for 28 years before they hit the millionaire mark.

  6. Save into your 401k – find a job or career that offers the opportunity to save into a 401k with a match, and take advantage of it right away.  80% of millionaires invested in their 401k.

  7. Don’t carry credit card debt – if you spend more than you earn, you will end up with credit card debt that will compound against you with high interest rates and make it near impossible to become a millionaire.  Spend less than you earn and save more.  Most millionaire never carry credit card debt. 

  8. Save into tax-deferred vehicles – This gives you a tax benefit that makes it easier to become a millionaire.  Use things such as 401ks, IRAs, Roth IRAs, and cash value life insurance.

  9. Become friendly with stocks and equities – One needs to earn close to a 7% annualized rate of return over time to become a millionaire.  Holding cash earning 0-2% or bonds earning 0-4% will make it much harder to become a millionaire.

  10. Be disciplined with investing – Stop messing around with fads (ie. Day trading, meme stocks, crypto, NFTs).  These can feel and sound exciting, but these are not too much different than gambling and you are more likely to strike out with $0 than hitting the home run and making millions.  Most millionaires invest consistently, with a disciplined and diversified long term portfolio.  This focus on the long term is more boring, but it is what works more often.  Embrace the boring! 

  11. Accept volatility – the stock market is down about 1 in 4 years.  Market corrections ( a drop of 10% of more) happen every year or so.  Bear markets (a drop of 20% of more) happen every 5 years or so.  Accept this and look at as an opportunity to buy low and take advantage of the short term discount!

  12. No excuses, do it, now!  - You can decide if you want to become a millionaire or not.  Take action today.  Start saving in an account today, ignore the noise, make it happen.

Sources: Entrepreneur and Business Insider

On It with Offit - December 2022

*|MC:SUBJECT|*
DEC | 2022

HAPPY HOLIDAYS
from OFFIT ADVISORS!

TEAMMATE SPOTLIGHT

Favorite Philanthropy:
  • American Cancer Society and American Foundation for Suicide Prevention

Interests:
  • Spending time with family, friends and my fur baby Pebbles, Cooking, Pilates, Dancing
 
Favorite Offit Advisors Value:
  • Our Team and Our Clients – We have an amazing Team, and we all work together to make sure we do the best job for our clients.
 
What is your philosophy on client service?
  • Knowing our client’s come first and assisting them with each individual need within a timely manner and making sure they are aware of the services we provide to them.
 
What gets you out of bed in the morning?
  • Knowing that “today” is a new day and “tomorrow” is not promised to any of us.
 
What could you give a 30-minute presentation about with no preparation?
  • Self-Awareness
 
Name one thing you'd spend more on to get the best quality.
  • Health

proACTIONPlanning Series

ep. 3 | Defensive Financial Planning
The latest from the Offit Advisors proAction Planning series. A discussion about how to protect yourself before you retire with Disability and Long-Term Care Insurance with Ben Offit, CFP®. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation. Click the image above to watch the video!

Ben Joins Carter & Tim for October Episode of the Health & Wealth Podcast

Listen Now

Qatar spent about $300 billion on stadiums and groundwork to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup. That money totaled more than all previous World Cups and Olympics combined,

Vox, November 25, 2022
 

The auction of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s art collection brought in a record $1.6 billion. Despite Allen being a discerning art collector, he recorded an average rate of just 6.2% over 18 years for the pieces he previously bought at auction.

Morning Brew, November 12, 2022
 

Americans are moving to Mexico at the fastest pace on record, with permits to temporarily live in the country surging 85% from the year before Covid.

Bloomberg, November 4, 2022
 

The smorgasbord of software needed to do any given task can make it feel like we are working multiple jobs at once. A study in Harvard Business Review suggests workers are switching from app to app and website to website, nearly 1,200 times a day – that amounts to a total of 9% of their annual time at work.

Axios, November 7, 2022

“Good ideas carried to wretched excess, become bad ideas.”
Charlie Munger
 

When Pennsylvania’s Senator-elect John Fetterman heads to Capitol Hill in January, exactly 10% of the Senate will have the first name Jon or John.

Washington Post, November 11, 2022


"Thanksgiving is a time to count your blessings, one by one, as each relative goes home."
Melanie White

Ten Steps to Become a Millionaire

Americans can become millionaires in many different ways – including real estate, business, inheritance, etc. However, I believe the surest path for most Americans is simply by saving and investing, and effectively using your company’s 401k plan.

So here is a clear 10 step path to joining the ranks of America’s 401(k) millionaires:

1) Sign up for your 401k and do it TODAY.

2) If your company offers a match, ALWAYS contribute up the full match, because it is an instant 100% rate of return. For example, if in order to get a 3% match, you need to contribute 3%, that is a 100% rate of return because irrespective of market performance, the company is putting in for you the same amount that you are. ALWAYS CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST UP TO THE MATCH, it’s hard to beat from a rate of return perspective.

3) After you are putting in the minimum to capture the maximum match, save as much as you can.

The only caveat here is if you have other more important short-term priorities or financial obligations. For example, if you need to put extra money towards buying a new home, or medical expenses those may take priority. Or if you have high interest debt, like credit card debt at 15%, it may make more sense to pay that off before putting extra money into the 401k.

Once those are paid off, redirect what you were paying towards those expenses or higher-interest debt into the 401k!

4) Take 20 minutes to see if a Financial Planner or CPA can help determine if you are better off using a Roth 401k or a Traditional 401k – the difference in taxes between now and later can really make a difference.

5) Focus on your asset allocation and investment mix, and start with a bias towards growth and stock allocation. Too many 401k investors hold far too much of their account in bonds, which should be kept to a minimum for those trying to accumulate long-term wealth. To get to millionaire status, you will need to be more of a stock owner, not a bond lender.

6) Don’t market time! Every time you get paid, invest each pay period, no matter what is happening in the markets! IGNORE THE NOISE! Don’t pay attention to the up and down movement of your account. Make automatic contributions each pay regardless of how the market is doing right now.

7) If you have the cash flow to do so, accelerate your contributions as early in the year as possible. For example, if your plan is to max out your 401k for the year, and you can do it in 6 months instead of 12 months, this gives your money more time to grow. However, before doing this, check with your HR representative to ensure that you won’t lose any of your company match by doing this.

8) Pay attention to costs of the funds and get familiar with the costs of each funds, and have a bias towards lower-cost funds.

9) Utilize funds that represent indexes. For example, you could incorporate funds that represent that S&P 500 index or International Indexes. Make sure you have diversification across the main asset classes – Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, International Developed Markets, International Emerging Markets, Real Estate, Commodities.

10) Wait until you reach full retirement age (at least 59.5 years old) to withdraw your funds, so you won’t pay a penalty for an early withdrawal. Let tax-deferred compounding work for you as long as possible!

If you follow these tips, for a few decades, it is almost certain you will become a millionaire!

Stock Rally Continues and Bonds Join the Party in November

Highlights

  • Following sharp declines in September, the stock market has mounted a solid comeback so far in the fourth quarter with gains in October and November. Additionally, international stocks rebounded sharply during the month.
  • Bonds, which did not participate in the equity rebound in October, staged a strong bounce in November as yields declined.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed November at 3.68% compared to the October close of 4.10%.
  • As expected, the FOMC raised its policy rate by another 75-basis points in November. The debate in the market is whether the Fed raises rates by a less aggressive amount at its final FOMC meeting in mid-December and into 2023.
  • The economy continues to slow under the pressure of higher interest rates. However, the second reading of U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2022 was revised higher to a 2.9% annualized growth rate, reinforcing our belief that we are not currently in a recession, but the odds of a mild recession later next year are rising.

Equity Markets
 

Equity index returns for November were as follows: The S&P 500 gained 5.59%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 6.04%, the Russell 3000 advanced 5.22%, the NASDAQ Composite rose by 4.51%, and the Russell 2000 Index, a measure of small-cap stocks, increased by 2.34%. Like the general trend in 2022, large, value-oriented companies fared relatively better during the month compared to growth and smaller-cap stocks. Year to date, these indices are down -13.10%, -2.89%, -14.18%, -26.13% and -14.91%, respectively.

The month started choppy after the early November FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed raise rates by 75 basis points and the continuation of the Fed’s hawkish stance toward monetary policy. However, stocks enjoyed a rather steady run from that point for the balance of the month. The VIX Index marched lower for most of the month as stocks rose and it broke below 20 in early December for the first time since August as volatility eased.

Equity strength was widespread in November, but there was some dispersion of returns. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite saw relative returns surpassed by most other major indices except for small-cap measures as growth remained an underperformer. The Russell 1000 Growth Index gained 4.56% for the month but is still off -23.26% for the year to date. In contrast, the Russell 1000 Value Index advanced 6.25% in November and is down a more modest -3.65% so far this year – just under 2000 basis points of better relative performance. After better relative gains in October, small caps underperformed in November, but value still outpaced growth. The Russell 2000 Growth Index rose just 1.63% in November while the Russell 2000 Value Index gained 3.06%. Year to date, those indices have declined -21.31% and -8.48%, respectively. Growth stocks are sensitive to interest rate moves and higher interest rates this year have led to underperformance of growth stocks in 2022. We continue to use our disciplined approach of seeking out what we believe to be high-quality companies with improving business conditions at what we believe are good prices and those companies can be found in both the value and growth universe.

International stocks were the real story in November with a sharp rebound in performance. As we have often discussed this year, the US Dollar Index (DXY) had broadly strengthened during most of 2022. However, it began to plateau over the last few months before dropping in November. Remember that an international stock loses value in dollar terms if the U.S. Dollar appreciates against that stock’s home currency. The removal of that significant headwind of dollar strength in November contributed to the rally in international stocks. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index, a broad measure of international equities, gained 11.80% in November, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 14.83%. On a year-to-date basis, these indices are down -15.37% and -18.95%, respectively.

Fixed Income

Fixed income returns were as follows for November: the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 3.68%, the Bloomberg U.S. Credit Index rallied 4.97%, the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index advanced 2.17% and the Bloomberg Municipal Index improved by 4.68%. As would be expected, the 30-year U.S. Treasury Index had some of the best results, gaining 7.19% for the month as rates dropped, while the general U.S. Treasury Index advanced 2.68%. For the year to date, the returns for these indices in the same order were as follows: -12.62%. -14.89%, -10.63%, -8.79%, -31.59% and -12.01%, respectively.

The 4% level on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was breached in October and closed on 10/24 at a more than 10-year high of 4.25% – a level not seen since the credit crisis. The yield closed the month at 4.10% and continued to move lower in November, closing at 3.68%. Clearly, the overall increase in interest rates this year has put significant pressure on the bond market and returns have suffered. While short-term returns are negatively impacted by the Fed raising rates, future potential returns for bonds have become more attractive with the higher yields available making bonds a more attractive asset class. As we have previously stated, we believe the move higher in rates in 2022 has run its course at the longer end of the yield curve and we expect the 10-year yield to move lower over the balance of the year. Since that high mark on the 10-year yield in late October, longer rates have come down and created a better backdrop for bond returns, which resulted in solid gains in November – while still acknowledging that results overall in 2022 have been challenging to say the least.

Bonds have struggled this year as there has been a repricing of interest rates across the yield curve and across bond sectors under this Fed rate tightening cycle. We maintain our long-standing position favoring credit versus pure rate exposure in this interest rate environment. We also believe that the role bonds play in a portfolio, to provide stable cash flows and to help offset the volatility of stocks in the long run, has not changed.

 


Source: Clark Capital Benchmark Review, November 2022


S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy. 

NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.

Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million. 

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. 

Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. 

Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Offit Advisors is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Offit Advisory Services, LLC is a tax firm but neither Kestra IS nor Kestra AS provide legal or tax advice and are not Certified Public Accounting firms.For more information on the Five Star Wealth Manager and the research/selection methodology go to: www.fivestarprofessional.com. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures
Facebook
Twitter
Website
LinkedIn
Instagram
6990 Columbia Gateway Drive
Suite 150
Columbia, MD 21046, US

Phone + Fax:  410 600 PLAN (7526)
E – Office@OffitAdvisors.com
W- www.OffitAdvisors.com
 
To schedule an appointment with us, click here!

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.