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Watch the video above to hear more from Ben Offit, CFP® as he shares some important retirement planning changes and updates in 2025 and also a nice story about teaching financial planning, investment concepts, and entrepreneurship with his family.
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Best Wishes to OA's Retiring Director of Insurance & Investment Operations Barbara Owens
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Our colleague and friend Barbara Owens is retiring, and we will really miss her!
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What Happened:
A new AI model called DeepSeek was recently released in China. It's causing a stir because it appears to be as good as, if not better than, the leading AI models developed in the US (like ChatGPT), but at a fraction of the cost.
Why It Matters:
- Increased Competition: DeepSeek is a major challenge to the current leaders in AI. This increased competition could lead to lower prices for AI services overall, which is good for businesses and consumers.
- Open-Source Advantage: DeepSeek is open-source, meaning anyone can use and modify it. This could make it more attractive than closed-source models like ChatGPT, which are more restrictive.
- Shift in Value: The companies that simply build AI models may become less valuable, while those that can apply AI in innovative ways or have unique data to train AI models could become more important.
The Bottom Line:
The AI landscape is changing rapidly. DeepSeek is a reminder that innovation can come from unexpected places and disrupt existing markets. We're staying ahead of these changes to ensure your portfolio remains well-positioned for the future.
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As you may be aware, the federal government recently announced a "deferred resignation program" for civilian employees. This program offers financial incentives to resign by September 30th, 2025, while retaining full pay and benefits.
This unexpected offer has created uncertainty and raised concerns among federal employees. Many are worried about job security, the legality of the program, and whether they will receive the promised compensation.
What does this mean for you?
If you're a federal employee, it's crucial to carefully evaluate your options and consider the potential implications of this program for your financial future. Here are some key points to keep in mind:
- Job Security: The federal government is undergoing significant changes, including potential job cuts and restructuring.
- Financial Implications: The deferred resignation program offers financial incentives, but it's important to weigh these against the potential loss of future income and benefits.
- Retirement: If you're nearing retirement, this program could affect your retirement plans.
Next Steps:
- Gather Information: Review the official information provided by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and your agency.
- Seek Guidance: Consult with your agency's HR department and a financial advisor to discuss your options and make informed decisions.
- Stay Informed: Monitor the situation closely for any updates or changes.
As your financial advisor, we are here to help you navigate this complex situation and make the best decisions for your financial well-being. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or concerns. |
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Tax Reminder!
1099s and 5498s and all relevant tax documents will start becoming available in February and will be mailed to you by Kestra, Fidelity, and National Financial services. If you need ANY assistance in attaining your tax documents we can have a call with you to obtain it.
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Of the 78,832 new passenger cars sold in Norway so far this year, 68,435 were electric, and last month 94% of new cars registered were electric vehicles. Norway has numerous incentives in favor of EVs, including a higher tax on internal combustion vehicles as well as lower parking fees for EVs.
Quartz, September 4, 2024
About half of the population aged 65 or older live in households that receive at least 50% of their family income from Social Security benefits.
FAS, Dec 16, 2022
Michelangelo's sculpture of the Pieta (1498-99) in St. Peter’s Basilica is one of his most exquisite creations and the only work of art he ever signed.
WalksinRome, January 1, 2024
Seniors are frequent victims of financial fraud, and for every one reported case of elder abuse, 24 others go unreported. According to a study cited by the National Center on Elder Abuse, The study pegs the annual losses from elder financial abuse at $28.3 billion.
Barron’s, June 14, 2024
In South Korea, an overworked “administrative officer robot” threw itself down a flight of stairs in an apparent suicide. The Gumi City Council announced the robot was found unresponsive, and witnesses say that before its fatal plunge, the robot was “circling in one spot as if something was there.”
Yahoo!News, June 26, 2024
Abraham Lincoln created the Secret Service on the day he was assassinated.
Yahoo!News, November 15, 2023
“A very rich person should leave kids enough to do anything but not enough to do nothing.”
Warren Buffett
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We have here two great summaries: one from Clark Capital, an investment strategist that has compelling market outlooks. Also, we have included some main points from a recent newsletter by Nick Murray, a renowned investment author. By reading these two you will absorb a lot of investment wisdom! Here are the main takeaways.
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Nick Murray's 2025 Lessons;
Staying Focused Amid Surprises
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Every year brings unexpected events—some good, some bad—but the key to long-term success is sticking to a disciplined investment plan. Here are the top takeaways to keep in mind as we navigate 2025:
1. Markets Are Always Full of Surprises
2024 was filled with major shocks—geopolitical conflicts, leadership changes, crypto volatility, and unexpected market swings. Rather than reacting emotionally, the best approach is to stay committed to your financial strategy.
2. Chasing Performance is a Losing Game
Many investors are selling underperforming assets, like small caps, to chase hot stocks. History shows that this usually leads to poor results and increased risk.
3. Market Concentration is at an Extreme
The top 10 stocks now make up a third of the S&P 500’s value, making the index more concentrated than ever—even more than during the dot-com bubble. Overexposure to these stocks increases risk, not necessarily return potential.
4. Valuations Are High, But Market Timing Doesn’t Work
With the S&P 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings, stocks are expensive. However, timing the market based on valuations has historically been unreliable—staying invested is the better long-term strategy.
5. Inflation is Still a Concern
Despite hopes for rapid rate cuts, inflation isn’t disappearing quickly, as Fed Chair Powell has indicated. This means markets may face continued uncertainty around interest rates.
6. Stick to Your Plan—Not the Headlines
If current events are influencing your investment decisions, it’s time to refocus. The most successful investors don’t react to the news—they follow a long-term, goal-based plan.
7. Rebalancing is More Important Than Ever
With some areas of the market soaring and others lagging, rebalancing ensures that your portfolio stays diversified and positioned for long-term success. Trimming what’s expensive and adding to undervalued areas has historically led to better results.
8. The Last 15 Years Were Exceptional—Don’t Expect It to Continue Forever
Since 2009, the S&P 500 has delivered a 16% annual return, well above its historical average of 10%. While we remain optimistic about long-term growth, returns may moderate in the years ahead.
The Bottom Line
Markets always bring surprises, but success comes from discipline, patience, and resisting emotional decisions. A well-diversified portfolio, regular rebalancing, and a focus on your long-term goals will always be the best path forward.
If you have any questions or want to review your portfolio strategy, let’s set up a time to connect.
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Clark Capital 2025 Market Outlook -
Key Takeaways
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- S&P 500 Target of 6700 (+14%)
- Driven by strong earnings growth and economic resilience.
- Gains may be front-loaded, with increased volatility expected in Q3.
- Small-Cap Outperformance Expected
- Valuations remain attractive compared to large-cap stocks.
- Historical underperformance sets up potential mean reversion.
- More Evenly Distributed S&P 500 Returns
- 2024 gains were concentrated in a few mega-cap tech stocks.
- A broader earnings expansion should help diversify gains in 2025.
- Inflation Under Control
- Cooling housing and wage growth suggest inflation is moderating.
- Fed expected to cut rates twice in 2025, easing financial conditions.
- Tariffs as a Negotiation Tool, Not a Major Inflation Driver
- Past tariffs didn’t significantly impact inflation pre-COVID.
- Expected to be more of a policy tactic rather than a sustained headwind.
- Strong Economic Growth Projected (2.5%)
- Pro-growth policies, deregulation, and resilient consumer demand.
- Manufacturing and service sectors show signs of recovery.
- Market Tailwinds Positive but Some Volatility in Q3
- First year of a president’s term typically sees strong market gains.
- A late-year rally is expected following a mid-year pullback.
- International Stocks Still Worth Owning Despite Underperformance
- U.S. stocks have outperformed 13 of the last 14 years.
- International valuations are much cheaper, which should support future returns.
- Company Earnings Growth Driving Returns
- Earnings remain the key driver of market performance.
- Broadening corporate profits expected, supporting a sustained bull market.
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S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot directly invest in the index.
Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy.
NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes approximately 5,000 stocks, more than most other stock market indices. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indices.
Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index which includes the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S., based on market capitalization. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $762.8 million; the median market capitalization was approximately $613.5 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $2.0 billion and a smallest of 218.4 million.
Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Government bonds are guaranteed by the U. S. Government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
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Miracle Mile Advisors LLC (“MMA”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where MMA and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information is illustrative, and is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. All investments include a risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. The principal risks of MMA's strategies are disclosed in the publicly available Form ADV Part 2A. Past performance shown is not indicative of future results, which could differ substantially. This message is confidential and subject to terms at: https://miraclemileadvisors.com/disclosures/ including on awards/rankings, confidentiality, legal privilege, viruses and monitoring of electronic messages. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this message and notify the sender immediately. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.
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